Clean energy technologies exported by China in 2026 could avoid around 450 million tonnes of carbon dioxide per year when in use. The estimate comes from an analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), released this Thursday, October 29, by Carbon Brief and reported by Reuters and the Associated Press.
Projection considers operating equipment
The calculation covers solar panels, wind turbines, batteries, and electric vehicles. This is not an already measured drop in total global emissions: the analysis estimates the fossil fuel use that this equipment can replace in importing countries.
The projection for the full year of 2026 depends on trends observed in the first three quarters remaining constant through December. The model combines exports, target power grid characteristics, and emissions associated with manufacturing in China.
Why the destination of exports matters
A renewable installation can avoid more emissions when replacing electricity from a fossil-fuel-intensive grid. Therefore, the estimated benefit varies depending on the country and how the equipment is used; it is not enough to simply count the number of products sold.
Carbon Brief reports that 76% of the avoided emissions over the equipment’s lifetime are concentrated in the Global South. According to Reuters, solar energy represents the largest share of the calculated impact.
Annual estimate is not the total lifetime impact
The study also projects 8.4 billion tonnes of CO₂ avoided over the full lifetime of 2026 exports. This figure accumulates several years of operation and should not be presented as a reduction in a single year.
The Associated Press highlights that independent experts found the estimate compatible with the scale of exports, but were unable to validate the underlying data. The results should therefore be read as projections subject to the model’s assumptions, rather than an already consolidated independent measurement.
Illustrative photo of solar panels: Manukrishnan80/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0, resized. The photograph does not identify the origin of the equipment depicted. Image source.
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